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Rahul PaulAI · Product · GTM
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Product analytics case study

Fumble Subscription Cohort Analysis

Comparing six-month retention across Standard and Pro subscription cohorts.

I analyzed July to December 2018 monthly cohorts to compare retention behavior across Fumble’s two subscription plans and surface plan-level patterns relevant to an investor discussion.

  • Product Analytics
  • Cohort Analysis
  • Retention
  • Subscription Analytics
  • Python
  • Revenue Analysis
monthly cohorts
6
subscription plans
2
analysis window
6-month
users in Jul–Dec cohorts
2,013

What the brief asked

Fumble is a dating app with two subscription plans, Standard and Pro. The exercise asked for the July to December 2018 monthly cohorts to be analyzed over their first six months for retention and average revenue, with the results prepared for an investor conversation.

This is a product exercise on a supplied dataset. It reports what the data shows and does not claim why, and no product change was shipped.

From subscriber rows to cohort tables

Six monthly cohorts per plan, tracked for months 0 to 5. A subscriber counts as retained at month m when their active months exceed m; month 0 is the cohort size.

  1. Raw subscription data

    4,711 subscribers with plan, start month and active months.

  2. Cohort assignment

    Subscribers grouped by plan and start month, Jul to Dec 2018.

  3. Active-month calculation

    Retained at month m when active months exceed m.

  4. Cohort retention table

    Counts and percentages for months 0 to 5, built in Python.

  5. Plan comparison

    Standard and Pro compared cohort by cohort at month 5.

The charts on this page are computed from the current workbook. The original one-page analysis was built from an earlier data snapshot and differs slightly for the July cohort (Standard 145 vs 151 users, Pro 84 vs 85), so its numbers are kept out of these charts rather than mixed in.

The brief also asked for average revenue. The workbook holds a lifetime revenue total per subscriber with no stated first-six-month method, so no revenue figure is shown rather than assuming one.

Standard Plan: 1,391 users across six cohorts

Standard Plan: % of each cohort still active
Standard Plan: % of each cohort still active. Values are % of the cohort. Rows are cohorts, columns are Retention month.
Retention month
CohortUsers012345
Jul ’18151100.090.180.868.260.957.6
Aug ’18160100.089.473.863.857.554.4
Sep ’18234100.082.980.365.860.346.6
Oct ’18279100.090.775.364.941.625.1
Nov ’18260100.075.872.351.922.321.5
Dec ’18307100.095.464.516.015.313.4

Values are % of the cohort. Darker tint means a higher value.

Standard Plan: retention by month
0%20%40%60%80%100%012345Months since joiningStandard Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 0: 100.0%Standard Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 1: 87.4%Standard Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 2: 73.6%Standard Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 3: 52.0%Standard Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 4: 39.3%Standard Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 5: 32.4%87.473.652.039.332.40%20%40%60%80%100%012345Months since joiningStandard Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 0: 100.0%Standard Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 1: 87.4%Standard Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 2: 73.6%Standard Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 3: 52.0%Standard Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 4: 39.3%Standard Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 5: 32.4%8774523932
  • Standard Plan, all six cohorts pooled
  • Individual cohorts

Pooled line sums all six cohorts; faint lines are the individual cohorts.

Standard Plan: retention by month: Standard Plan retention by month for the six Jul to Dec 2018 cohorts. Pooled across cohorts, retention falls from 100% at month 0 to 32.4% at month 5.
Retention monthJulAugSepOctNovDecStandard Plan, all six cohorts pooled
0100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
190.1%89.4%82.9%90.7%75.8%95.4%87.4%
280.8%73.8%80.3%75.3%72.3%64.5%73.6%
368.2%63.8%65.8%64.9%51.9%16.0%52.0%
460.9%57.5%60.3%41.6%22.3%15.3%39.3%
557.6%54.4%46.6%25.1%21.5%13.4%32.4%

Pro Plan: 622 users across six cohorts

Pro Plan: % of each cohort still active
Pro Plan: % of each cohort still active. Values are % of the cohort. Rows are cohorts, columns are Retention month.
Retention month
CohortUsers012345
Jul ’1885100.096.592.988.272.971.8
Aug ’1885100.098.892.985.976.572.9
Sep ’1895100.092.686.376.865.353.7
Oct ’18101100.098.085.171.360.444.6
Nov ’18131100.078.672.554.229.029.0
Dec ’18125100.099.272.029.628.025.6

Values are % of the cohort. Darker tint means a higher value.

Pro Plan: retention by month
0%20%40%60%80%100%012345Months since joiningPro Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 0: 100.0%Pro Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 1: 93.2%Pro Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 2: 82.2%Pro Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 3: 64.5%Pro Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 4: 51.9%Pro Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 5: 46.5%93.282.264.551.946.50%20%40%60%80%100%012345Months since joiningPro Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 0: 100.0%Pro Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 1: 93.2%Pro Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 2: 82.2%Pro Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 3: 64.5%Pro Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 4: 51.9%Pro Plan, all six cohorts pooled, 5: 46.5%9382645246
  • Pro Plan, all six cohorts pooled
  • Individual cohorts

Pooled line sums all six cohorts; faint lines are the individual cohorts.

Pro Plan: retention by month: Pro Plan retention by month for the six Jul to Dec 2018 cohorts. Pooled across cohorts, retention falls from 100% at month 0 to 46.5% at month 5.
Retention monthJulAugSepOctNovDecPro Plan, all six cohorts pooled
0100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%
196.5%98.8%92.6%98.0%78.6%99.2%93.2%
292.9%92.9%86.3%85.1%72.5%72.0%82.2%
388.2%85.9%76.8%71.3%54.2%29.6%64.5%
472.9%76.5%65.3%60.4%29.0%28.0%51.9%
571.8%72.9%53.7%44.6%29.0%25.6%46.5%

Pro cohorts retain more at month 5

Month-5 retention by cohort
0%20%40%60%80%100%Jul ’18Aug ’18Sep ’18Oct ’18Nov ’18Dec ’18Monthly cohortPro Plan, Jul ’18: 71.8%Pro Plan, Aug ’18: 72.9%Pro Plan, Sep ’18: 53.7%Pro Plan, Oct ’18: 44.6%Pro Plan, Nov ’18: 29.0%Pro Plan, Dec ’18: 25.6%Standard Plan, Jul ’18: 57.6%Standard Plan, Aug ’18: 54.4%Standard Plan, Sep ’18: 46.6%Standard Plan, Oct ’18: 25.1%Standard Plan, Nov ’18: 21.5%Standard Plan, Dec ’18: 13.4%71.872.953.744.629.025.657.654.446.625.121.513.40%20%40%60%80%100%Jul ’18Aug ’18Sep ’18Oct ’18Nov ’18Dec ’18Monthly cohortPro Plan, Jul ’18: 71.8%Pro Plan, Aug ’18: 72.9%Pro Plan, Sep ’18: 53.7%Pro Plan, Oct ’18: 44.6%Pro Plan, Nov ’18: 29.0%Pro Plan, Dec ’18: 25.6%Standard Plan, Jul ’18: 57.6%Standard Plan, Aug ’18: 54.4%Standard Plan, Sep ’18: 46.6%Standard Plan, Oct ’18: 25.1%Standard Plan, Nov ’18: 21.5%Standard Plan, Dec ’18: 13.4%727354452926585447252213
  • Pro Plan
  • Standard Plan

Share of each cohort still active at retention month 5, from the current workbook.

Month-5 retention by cohort: Month-5 retention by cohort. Pro Plan: Jul 71.8%, Aug 72.9%, Sep 53.7%, Oct 44.6%, Nov 29.0%, Dec 25.6%. Standard Plan: Jul 57.6%, Aug 54.4%, Sep 46.6%, Oct 25.1%, Nov 21.5%, Dec 13.4%.
CategoryPro PlanStandard Plan
Jul ’1871.8%57.6%
Aug ’1872.9%54.4%
Sep ’1853.7%46.6%
Oct ’1844.6%25.1%
Nov ’1829.0%21.5%
Dec ’1825.6%13.4%
  • Pro-plan cohorts have higher month-5 retention than Standard-plan cohorts in each of the six Jul to Dec cohorts.For example Jul 71.8% vs 57.6%, Dec 25.6% vs 13.4%.
  • Standard-plan cohorts contain more users in absolute terms.1,391 Standard vs 622 Pro users across the six cohorts.

These are descriptive observations. The data does not explain why Pro users stay longer, and later cohorts have had less time to accumulate months, so a cohort-by-cohort read is the fairest comparison.

Related design prototype

Tumble: Report a user

A separate design exercise from the same course file, shown as related product-design work. It is not part of the cohort analysis.

Open in Figma (opens in a new tab)

1 / 4

Step 01

Home: report entry

A profile card in the Tumble dating app carries a Report button next to the person's name.

  • Entry pointReport beside the profile name
  • Also on screenSuper Like and Mode
  • Bottom barProfile, Bees, Likes, Chat

Source dataset

PMF: Week 5 Project Data Set

XLSX · 4,711 rows · 7 columns

The raw subscriber data behind every chart on this page.

Download data (opens in a new tab)
IDJoin DateEnd DatePlan TypeRevenueStart MonthActive Months
899502018-01-252019-03-02Standard Plan$160.00Jan-201814
899512018-01-262018-03-27Standard Plan$40.00Jan-20182
899522018-01-262021-01-27Pro Plan$1,234.29Jan-201837
899532018-01-262021-01-27Pro Plan$1,234.29Jan-201837
899542018-01-272021-01-27Pro Plan$1,234.29Jan-201837
899552018-01-272021-07-11Standard Plan$461.71Jan-201843
899582018-01-292018-10-26Standard Plan$180.00Jan-20189
899842018-02-032018-04-19Standard Plan$40.00Feb-20183

First 8 of 4,711 rows. The full workbook is not embedded in the page.